Not going to work

Jun. 23rd, 2017 06:52 am
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

The Queen was reported to police for not wearing a seatbelt as she travelled to the State Opening of Parliament in her official call.

West Yorkshire Police said they received a 999 call about the royal journey.

You never really know these days, good joke or just some twat.

Under UK law, civil and criminal proceedings cannot be taken against the Queen.

Quite, R. v R. would be a bit of a problem.

Wondrous

Jun. 23rd, 2017 06:14 am
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

Little moments like that kept adding up, incrementally nudging me away from leftism but not yet to full conversion. In 1988, watching a John Pilger documentary with lefty friends, another such moment occurred.

Pilger, as usual, was complaining about colonialism and racism and Aboriginal injustice, so naturally we—uniformly white, urban and privileged—were lapping it up. The documentary then shifted to the former nuclear testing site at Maralinga in South Australia, where seven British bombs were detonated in the 1950s and 1960s. Pointing to a sign warning of radiation danger, Pilger observed mournfully that it was written in several languages—“but not in the Aboriginal language”.

Startled by this claim, I looked around the room. Everyone was silent, including a few who had studied Aboriginal history in considerable depth, and so must have known that Pilger’s line was completely wrong. So I just said it: “There is no single Aboriginal language. And no Aboriginal language has a written form.”

[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson

The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above.

It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead.

As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she is behind.

    The election campaign exposed her weaknesses to such an extent that it is hard to see how she can recover.

Her attempt to avoid media scrutiny and the manner she merely repeated platitudes when pressed on key issues didn’t go down well. Not taking part in a leaders’ debate was a mistake as was avoiding programmes like Woman’s Hour.

My view is that TMay was not helped by the manner of her election as CON leader last July. If she had secured the post by going through the Tory members ballot her campaigning skills would have been enhanced and she’d have been better able to cope with the scrutiny of a general election campaign.

Andrea Leadsom pulling out after the race had been reduced to the final two in the MP ballots was bad news for her.

Her now poor leader ratings are going to be used against her even assuming that she gets through next week’s Queen’s Speech vote.

Will she survive? It is becoming less likely.

Mike Smithson


cupcake_goth: (Default)

(no subject)

Jun. 22nd, 2017 10:29 pm
[personal profile] cupcake_goth
Cartomancy + kitty! And trying out my new sparkly gold fountain pen ink

Halloween Tarot: Six of Imps (Six of Wands in traditional decks).


Six of Imps and Miss Erzabet No Biting
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

Quito: Julian Assange’s lawyer accused Britain on Thursday of breaking international law by denying the WikiLeaks founder safe passage out of the country if he leaves Ecuador’s embassy in London.

“Britain is… violating all the norms of international law, human rights and humanitarian law,” said Baltasar Garzon, a Spanish ex-judge who leads Assange’s defense team.

He’s wanted for breaching his bail terms. There is no right of free passage in such circumstances.

From memory Garzon was the magistrate who wanted Pinochet so he’s been inventive in legal theory for some time.

This will be a surprise to Spudda

Jun. 23rd, 2017 05:13 am
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

He’s entirely insistent that only the Magic Money Tree can aid us, for exports just aren’t going to change at all:

Britain’s factories are experiencing their strongest performance in nearly three decades as the fall in the pound gives exporters an advantage abroad.

The CBI said order books in June had climbed to their highest level since August 1988, while export demand hit a 22-year high. Economists said the findings raised hopes that a manufacturing boom might offset the slowdown in consumer spending and steady the economy.

They’re not very expensive

Jun. 23rd, 2017 05:10 am
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

Passwords belonging to British cabinet ministers, ambassadors and senior police officers have been traded online by Russian hackers, an investigation by The Times has found.

Email addresses and passwords used by Justine Greening, the education secretary, and Greg Clark, the business secretary, are among stolen credentials of tens of thousands of government officials that were sold or bartered on Russian-speaking hacking sites. They were later made freely available.

Two huge lists of stolen data reveal private log-in details of 1,000 British MPs and parliamentary staff, 7,000 police employees and more than 1,000 Foreign Office officials, an analysis shows — including the department’s own head of IT.

Apparently they’re £2 each. But then that’s probably about what they’re worth. Both in the sense of well, what’s going to be so exciting about their accounts and also in the sense of how tough is it going to be to guess?

Don’t forget that Harriet Harman’s log in to her WordPress site was “Harriet” “Harman”

[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

Clegg identified the leading players of the Brexit elite as “the hedge-fund managers for whom EU-wide regulations are an overburdensome hindrance to their financial aspirations”.

He added: “[They are also] the owners and editors of the rightwing press, whose visceral loathing of the EU has shaped their respective papers’ tone and coverage for decades; the Tory backbenchers, many of whom still inhabit a preposterous past in which Britannia still rules the waves and diplomacy is best conducted from the royal yacht; a handful of multi-millionaire businessmen who have, in some cases over 30 years or more, bankrolled whichever party, or politician, stands on the most aggressive EU-bashing platform.”

Hillary has infected Cleggie…….

They can’t even hand out free money

Jun. 23rd, 2017 04:37 am
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

Nicola Sturgeon’s government has been forced to issue a last-ditch appeal for more time to make thousands of delayed farm subsidy payments in the hope of avoiding up to £60 million of EU fines.

For the second year running, the Scottish Government has approached the European Commission asking for the June 30 payment deadline to be extended following the catastrophic failure of a £178 million computer system that was supposed to hand out the money.

Yet, fifthly and candidly, government must rule more of our lives.

yhlee: fox with nine tails with eyes (hxx emblem Shuos)

[hxx] [story] Squirrel-Fishing

Jun. 22nd, 2017 08:29 pm
[personal profile] yhlee
For A.B.
Prompt: "Shuos pranks."

with apologies to the black squirrels of Stanford University campus

Jedao and Ruo had set up shop at the edge of one of the campus gardens, the one with the carp pond and the carefully maintained trees. Rumor had it that some of the carp were, in addition to being over a hundred years old, outfitted with surveillance gear. Like most Shuos cadets, Jedao and Ruo would, if questioned, laugh off the rumors while secretly believing in them wholeheartedly--at least the bit about surveillance gear. Jedao had argued that the best place to hide what they were doing was in plain sight. After all, who would be so daft as to run a prank right next to surveillance?

"Lovely day, isn't it?" Ruo said brightly.

Jedao winced. "Not so loud," he said. His head was still pounding after last night's excesses, and the sunlight wasn't helping. Why did he keep letting Ruo talk him into things? It wasn't just that Ruo was really good in bed. He had this way of making incredibly risky things sound fun. Going out drinking? In itself, not that bad. Playing a drinking game with unlabeled bottles of possibly-alcohol-possibly-something-else stolen from Security's hoard of contraband? Risky. Some of those hallucinations had been to die for, though, especially when he started seeing giant robots in the shape of geese.

Fortunately, this latest idea wasn't that risky. Probably. Besides, of the many things that the other cadets had accused Jedao of, low risk tolerance wasn't one of them.

"Not my fault you can't hold your drink," Ruo said, even more brightly.

"I'm going to get you one of these days," Jedao muttered.

Ruo's grin flashed in his dark brown face. "More like you'll lose the latest bet and--" He started describing what he'd do to Jedao in ear-burning detail.

At last one of the other first-years, puzzled by what Jedao and Ruo were doing by the carp pond with a pair of fishing poles, approached. Jedao recognized them: Meurran, who was good at fixing guns despite their terrible aim, and who had a glorious head of wildly curling hair. "Security's not going to approve of you poaching the carp," Meurran said.

"Oh, this isn't for the carp," Ruo said. He flicked his fishing pole, and the line with its enticing nut snaked out toward one of the trees.

Meurran gave Ruo a funny look. "Ruo," they said, "the fish are in the opposite direction."

"Please," Jedao said, "who cares about the fish? No one has anything to fear from the fish. That's just nonsense."

"All right," Meurran said, sounding distinctly unimpressed, "then what?"

Come on, Jedao thought, the nut is right there...

As if on cue, a black squirrel darted down from the tree, then made for the nut.

Ruo tugged the nut just out of reach.

The black squirrel looked around, then headed for the nut again.

"Oh, isn't that adorable?" Meurran said.

"Don't be fooled!" Ruo said as he guided the squirrel in a figure-eight through the grass. "Why would the commandant be so stupid as to rely on carp, which can't even leave their pond?"

Meurran glanced involuntarily at the pond, where two enormous carp were lazily circling near the surface, as if the carp, in fact, had a habit of oozing out onto the land and spying on lazy cadets. "You're saying the squirrels--?"

Ruo continued to cause the squirrel to chase after the nut. "It makes sense, doesn't it? Everyone thinks the black squirrels are the cutest. They're even featured in the recruitment literature. Damnably clever piece of social engineering if you ask me."

Meurran was starting to look persuaded in spite of themselves.

Meanwhile, as Ruo made his case, Jedao leaned back and studied the squirrel with a frown. The local population of black squirrels was mostly tame to begin with and had proven to be easy to train with the aid of treats. (Ruo had made Jedao do most of this, "because you're the farm boy.") But while Ruo and Meurran argued about squirrel population dynamics, Jedao caught a slight flash from behind the squirrel's eyes--almost like that of a camera?

He opened his mouth to interrupt.

The squirrel made an odd convulsing motion, and the light flashed again, this time directly into Jedao's eyes.

Jedao closed his mouth, and kept his thoughts to himself.
[syndicated profile] skepchick_feed

Posted by Rebecca Watson

Support more videos like this at patreon.com/rebecca!

Sorta transcript:

A truly heartbreaking study has just been published in the journal “Pediatrics” showing that the third leading cause of death for children in the US is gunshots. If you’ve spent any time in the US looking at the news, you’ll know that guns are a very serious problem here, with mass shootings so regular that there have been a few times this year when I’ve seen one reported and mistakenly assumed that it was one that had happened earlier in the day. In 2015 there were 372 mass shootings in the US, so yep — more than one per day on average.

Another fun fact: more Americans have died in the US from guns in the past 50 years than all American who have died in every war the US has ever fought for its entire history. See? Fun!

So this new statistic, that gunshots are the third leading cause of death in children, isn’t exactly surprising. But I want to talk about it because while it is terrible, the news outlets reporting on it are misleading in a way I find important to note.

For instance, over on Newsweek an article declares the study findings in the headline and then opens by pointing out the tragic deaths of four children who were accidentally shot with guns in June alone, and we’ve still got a week and a half of June left. All four kids are under the age of 9.

Here’s the issue: the study was about “children” as defined legally — under the age of 18. And it’s not just about accidental deaths — it includes murders and suicides. When you break down the actual categories, you see that the deaths of the children mentioned in the article actually account for less than 6% of cases.

Newsweek doesn’t link to the study although the entire thing is available in full on the Pediatrics website where you can see that the researchers broke the victims down into two age groups: 0-12 and 13-17. Though the older group should be significantly smaller considering it encompasses only 5 years of age as opposed to 13 years of age in the younger group, older kids accounted for 82% of all victims.

I’m not just nitpicking, here. The problem with portraying all these gun deaths as accidentally happening to small children means that people will get the wrong idea of how we might go about combatting it. If the majority of these deaths really were accidental deaths of small children playing with guns, the solution is simply investing in gun safety education for kids and for adults, making sure guns are locked up and emptied of ammo or only able to be used by the owner. I say “simply” but obviously in the US nothing involving gun control is simple thanks to the lobbyists at the NRA, but still, it’s a fairly straightforward plan.

But because the actual data shows the vast majority are teenagers who are being murdered or killing themselves, the solution becomes a multi-pronged one. We need to do the above (because there are still young kids accidentally killing themselves and others) and also we need to keep kids out of gangs, and we need to keep gangs out of neighborhoods. We need to fix underlying factors like poverty. And we need better access to psychological counseling for youth, especially those that are most at-risk and have access to guns.

And the thing is, the researchers say all that really clearly in their study, but it’s being overlooked because people care more about toddlers accidentally shooting themselves than poor 15-year old kids dying in gang shootouts. The latter is the greater problem, but it also requires the most complicated solution — and unfortunately, humans tend to prefer dramatic events with simple fixes.

[syndicated profile] markpack2_feed

Posted by Mark Pack

It’s back to council by-elections after the general election, with five held this week.

First in: a Conservative hold with a swing to the Liberal Democrats and the party’s candidate Alec Jones:

More results as they come…

 

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.

Get by-election results by email

If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:

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[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson

Numbers like this will add to the pressure on the PM

Just two weeks to the minute after we saw the exit poll there’s some sensational new polling from YouGov for the Times. The figures are above. TMay is now trailing Corbyn as best PM.

This could provide the ammunition for those in the Tory party who are said to have been pressing for a new leader following TMay’s GE2017 campaign. The Tories don’t like losers is how she is being portrayed.

In first YouGov poll after calling the general election TMay was leading Corbyn by 54-15% as who would make the best PM. Now Corbyn’s ahead

The news of this latest finding came to the minute exactly two weeks after the stunning exit poll.

Mike Smithson


[syndicated profile] markpack2_feed

Posted by Mark Pack

Channel 4 has been digging away again:

The Conservative Party contracted a secretive call centre during the election campaign which may have broken data protection and election laws, a Channel 4 News investigation has found…

The investigation has uncovered what appear to be underhand and potentially unlawful practices at the centre, in calls made on behalf of the Conservative Party. These allegations include:

  • Paid canvassing on behalf of Conservative election candidates – banned under election law.
  • Political cold calling to prohibited [i.e. TPS registered] numbers
  • Misleading calls claiming to be from an ‘independent market research company’ which does not apparently exist.

You can read the full investigation here.

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If you’d like to be notified by email when new posts about how are how our elections are run appear on this blog, just sign up here. (Note: if you’re already signed up for a daily email alert with all my new blog posts, then there’s no need to sign up for these alerts too as the stories will also be in the full daily digest.)

Interested in more stories about how our elections are run? Follow my dedicated election law channels on Facebook or Twitter which include bonus extra stories that don’t appear on this blog.

yhlee: wax seal (hxx Deuce of Gears)

fountain pens!

Jun. 22nd, 2017 03:38 pm
[personal profile] yhlee
I did an essay for Tor.com, The Beauty of Physical Writing, on fountain pens! There's a photo of some of my fountain pens over there.

From left to right, for the curious: Waterman 52V, Webster Four-Star, Scriptorium Pens Master Scrivener in Red Stardust, Conway Stewart Churchill in Red Stardust, Aurora 75th Anniversary, Nakaya Naka-ai in aka-tamenuri, Wahl-Eversharp Doric in Kashmir with #3 adjustable nib, and Pilot Vanishing Point Twilight.

Meanwhile, I swear I am writing flash fic right now. This caffeine is taking an unholy amount of time to kick in...

No Fly Tipping

Jun. 22nd, 2017 07:34 pm
[syndicated profile] culture_vulture_feed

Posted by Phil Kirby

He walked diagonally across the Mistress Lane playing field dragging what looked like a length of dirty tarpaulin.
I thought he was fly-tipping, heading for the bin in the far corner.
Not that anyone uses that bin.
The ...
[syndicated profile] markpack2_feed

Posted by Mark Pack

In an article for The Guardian, Norman Lamb has announced he is not in the running to be the next Liberal Democrat leader. Europe, not surprisingly, features heavily in his comments:

I have just fought a gruelling campaign to win my North Norfolk seat. Attempting to win a seat for the Liberal Democrats in an area that voted quite heavily to leave the EU was bound to be a challenge. Not only was the party’s position on Brexit toxic to many erstwhile Liberal Democrat voters in North Norfolk, but I found myself sympathising with those who felt that the party was not listening to them and was treating them with some disdain.

I abstained on article 50 because I felt it was wrong in principle to vote against, given that we had all voted to hold the referendum in the first place. For many in the party that abstention was an act of betrayal.

And yet, as I pointed out earlier in the week, since Tim Farron’s resignation Norman Lamb has been tweeting his support of the party’s position of calling for a referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal.

Given his public backing of this position, and his popularity with party members as shown in my leadership survey, I think there would have been a path to take on Europe that would have worked in a leadership contest and then as leader of the party for Norman Lamb. If, that is, he really wanted it. Which reminds me of how little at times he seemed to be enjoying the previous Liberal Democrat leadership contest. Perhaps I’m reading too much into that, but that also makes it really good news to see the passion Norman Lamb still has for campaigning in other ways:

I want the Liberal Democrats to use our potentially pivotal position in parliament to force cross-party working on the profound challenges we face: not just the Brexit negotiations, but how we secure the future of the NHS and our care system.

In my work as a health minister in the coalition, I became more and more outraged by the way people with mental ill health and those with learning disability and autism are treated by the state. So often I heard stories of people being ignored, not listened to. The dad of a patient at Winterbourne View (the care home where abuse of residents was exposed by Panorama), who told me he felt guilty because there was nothing he could do for his son: no one would listen to his complaints. The teenage girl with autism held in an institution for over two years, treated like an animal. No one would listen to her family’s pleas. I helped get her out and she now leads a good life – but one minister can’t intervene in every case.

And now we have the horror of Grenfell Tower. Again a story of people being ignored, treated as second-class citizens. These aren’t isolated exceptions to the rule. Powerlessness is rife in Britain today, along with obscene inequalities of wealth.

Well, we cannot tolerate this any longer.

Whether it is tenants in tower blocks; people with learning disabilities; workers with no stake in an enterprise watching as the owners of capital take an ever growing percentage of our national income, and their own wages fall; the citizen who feels powerless against remote power, whether at the town hall, Westminster or Brussels – these are the things that drive me on, keep me fighting for justice.

Meanwhile, in the Lib Dem leadership contest there is yet to be firm news from Ed Davey about whether or not he will run. I’d very firmly bet on him running.

Although Vince Cable would start the favourite in a Cable vs Davey contest, it’s worth remembering that the favourite in the last three Liberal Democrat leadership contests has lost ground heavily during the contest and won by a much smaller margin than initially predicted. Would this be a fourth occasion of the favourite slipping back and perhaps this time by enough to actually lose? Interesting times.

andrewducker: (Default)

Lothian Transport are awesome

Jun. 22nd, 2017 09:11 pm
[personal profile] andrewducker
At 2:06pm on Sunday I posted my feature request for the Lothian Transport app.

At 3:14pm the following afternoon I received an email saying
Sorry, street names and localities should have been added to the search screen before now. I’ve sent an update to the Google Play store just now so you should have an update available in the next few hours.
and about 45 minutes later my phone automatically updated to the latest version and I could see this:


I emailed back saying that this was awesome, but wondering why one of them just said "Edinburgh", and got this in response:
Unfortunately sometimes we can’t control what we get back from Google’s Places API. If Google decides that a place doesn’t need to have more than the town/city listed, then that’s all we get I’m afraid. We also mix in Foursquare and Google Geocoding data where appropriate as well.

It helps to include a bit more in your search, such as ‘Morrisons Granton’ or ‘Morrisons Ferry Road' rather than just ‘Morrisons’. The more you type in, the more accurate the results. It also takes into account your current location – typing in ‘Morrisons’ while you’re near Hyvots Bank will give you results geared towards South/West Edinburgh rather than North/East Edinburgh.

As to your other point (distance to search result) - at the moment, showing distance isn’t possible. We use Google Places to match search queries: that service is great because you can type in anything - ‘Morrisons’, ‘Tesco’, ‘pizza in Leith’ etc. and it comes back with accurate results. However, it doesn’t give the app the location of each place. Instead it gives the app a ‘Place ID’ - once you’ve tapped on a search result, the app sends the Place ID to Google which sends back the exact coordinate of the search result. If that changes in the future, we’ll be sure to include distance as part of the search result.


Which was a fascinating look at how their systems work in the background.

If only more places were so responsive to users taking an interest.
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_forbes_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

News today that Foxconn, famous as the assembler of Apple’s iPhone, is planning a $10 billion investment in a display production plant in the US. This is a decision driven mostly by transport costs, little else. The cost of capital doesn’t vary much around the world these days, the costs of labour are converging, leaving transport costs as really the one big variable. Something small and valuable like an iPhone, transport costs are a minimal consideration. Something large like the current display systems those transport costs could indeed be the thing which swings the location decision:

Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics maker and a major Apple Inc (AAPL.O) supplier, plans to invest more than $10 billion in a display-making factory in the United States and will decide on the location of the plant next month.

Americans do buy rather a lot of TV sets, this is true, and there’s no domestic manufacture at present. But why decide to open a new plant? What has changed since the industry moved offshore?

Terry Gou gave no new information about where Foxconn will locate a U.S. display panel factory he said in January would cost up to $7 billion to build. That announcement triggered a flurry of lobbying by state leaders hoping to attract the investment, which he said might generate as many as 50,000 jobs.

Foxconn bought into Sharp don’t forget, so it has access to the top end technology of the day. But moving electronics manufacture to an expensive country seems an odd thing to do:

“Our investment in the U.S. will focus on these states because they are the heart of the country’s manufacturing sector,” he told investors. “We are bringing the entire industrial chain back to the traditional manufacturing region of the U.S. That may include display making, semiconductor packaging and cloud-related technologies,” Gou told reporters later, without elaborating.

Well, yes, that’s lovely, but why? As I said back when this was first mooted in January, transport costs:

The point about displays being that they are getting larger and larger. And transport costs depend upon volume (actually, weight volume but let’s not go into that little technicality). Shipping some 60 inch display across the Pacific is not the same thing as bundling a cute little box into an airplane. And this has been trailed back a couple of years. As those displays get ever larger it is going to make ever more sense to construct them nearer to the retail markets they are aimed at.

So, to go back to Ricardo. He told us that we’d all be richer if we exploited comparative advantage. We all did less of what we’re bad at, more of what we’re good at and so shared out the work and traded the resultant production. Such things as labour costs, technology and so on, obviously contribute to such comparative advantage. But Ricardo also taught us about the law of one price. Things that can be traded should cost the same amount everywhere, after we’ve added or subtracted, as necessary, transport costs. So, Taiwanese, or Chinese, labour costs aren’t all that much divergent from the US today. Sure, wages are higher in the US but so is productivity, as it should be. The costs of capital are about the same wherever a plant is built–and capital, not labour, is the major cost here. Which leaves us just transport costs. And if we’ve got something bulky like ever larger displays then that could indeed be just the thing which tips the decision.

….. tariff barriers on imports into the US rose significantly after the Civil War. Doubled in fact. And yet trade, imports, continued to grow in leaps and bounds. The answer being that the costs of transport (recall, this is when the trans-oceanic steamship came into play) fell by more than the rise in tariffs. And of course it’s the transport plus tariff costs which lead to the size of the trade barrier.

Modern displays are of the sort of size where transport costs becomes one of the deciding issues. Other costs differ little around the world these days, thus Foxconn’s decision is largely about such transport costs.

matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)

British Liberal, house husband, school play leader and stepdad. Campaigner, atheistic feminist, amateur baker. Male.

Known to post items of interest on occasions. More likely to link to interesting stuff. Sometimes talks about stuff he's done. Occasionally posts recipes for good food. Planning to get married, at some point. Enjoying life in Yorkshire.

Likes comments. Especially likes links. Loves to know where people came from and what they were looking for. Mostly posts everything publicly. Sometimes doesn't. Hi.

Mat Bowles

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I'm the Chair of the Brighouse branch of the Liberal Democrats & the membership secretary for Calderdale Lib Dems and run the web campaign for the local candidates. I have a job, a stepdaughter and a life.

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