[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson

Could the reds or blues produce a version for the final week?

With all the talk of negative ads today let’s look back five and half years to see how it’s really done.

Could we get something similar here? Obviously we have PPBs not paid for TV political advertising but it’s the message that’s central.

What about “could you trust this man with……his finger on the nuclear”/saving the world from a banking disaster….etc” with references to secretaries and chairs or the Bullingdon Club?

Whatever this election is going to get very dirty the closer it gets to the day.

Mike Smithson

More good science in HuffPo

Feb. 9th, 2010 09:14 pm
[syndicated profile] badastronomy_feed

Posted by Phil Plait

netherlands_meteorSteve Newton of the wonderful National Center for Science Education has written another article promoting science in the Huffington Post, this time about asteroid impacts. And special bonus; he gives your loyal host here a shout-out.

Specifically, he mentions that I have said that the Hale-Bopp comet was larger than what wiped out the dinosaurs. It’s true: the object that created the Chicxulub crater off the coast of the Yucatan was something like 10 km (6 miles) across. The nucleus of Hale-Bopp was roughly 60 km (36 miles) across, meaning it would have had something like 100 times the mass of the dinosaur killer. I have vivid nightmares about asteroid impacts, and one 100x the size of the K-T extinction event is beyond scary.

Right now we lack the capability to stop such a comet impact; Hale-Bopp was discovered less than two years before it sailed by the Earth. It missed us by a huge margin, but had it been aimed at us things would look a lot different around here right now. We may be years away from being able to stop such an event, but as I’ve written before, people like Rusty Schweikart and Dan Durda are seriously considering what we can do, and have even started the B612 Foundation to look into it.

If we’re serious about such threats, were just a few years away from being able to prevent them. Given that statistically big impacts are very rare and only happen every few hundred thousand years or so, I’m rather liking where we stand right now. But that’s if we actually do something now. We need to start working on mitigation techniques, and rockets to carry them. I’m glad the B612 Foundation is working on it.

Related articles: A Pro-science article on HuffPo?


The Tory-like silence over refugees

Feb. 9th, 2010 08:42 pm
[syndicated profile] chicken_yoghurt_feed

Posted by Justin

Away from the calamity and misery Blair’s government visited upon brown people, have you seen the misery and calamity his successor’s is visiting upon brown people?

How about…

A group of women being held at Yarl’s Wood immigration centre are refusing food for a fifth day in protest over the length of detention and being separated from children… On Monday, day four of the hunger strike, a group of about 50 women tried to move around the centre and were locked in a corridor. The women say they were held there for hours on end without water or access to a toilet. They told campaigners some of them had fainted.

…or…

Claims that asylum seekers are mistreated, tricked and humiliated by staff working for the UK Border Agency are to be investigated in parliament… Louise Perrett, who worked as a case owner at the Border Agency office in Cardiff for three and a half months last summer… alleges that one official boasted to her that he tested the claims of boys from African countries who said they had been forcibly conscripted as child soldiers by making them lie down on the floor and demonstrate how they shot at people in the bush. Perrett… said interviews were conducted without lawyers, independent witnesses or tape recorders. If a case was difficult, Perrett claims, she was simply advised to refuse it and “let a tribunal sort it out”. Only cases raised by MPs appeared to be dealt with properly… One of her cases involved a Congolese woman who had the right to remain in the UK. Perrett says a superior nevertheless decided the woman and her children should be removed…

The BNP’s immigration aspirations are enough to bring people onto the streets. And yet the active and dangerous immigration policies of a so-called Labour government elicits barely a squeak much beyond refugee advocacy groups. It’s time to give less attention to the damage a potential (and impossible) Griffin government might do to refugees and time to start having a look at what damage a very real Brown government is doing to refugees.

Where’s the outrage? Where are the eggs and howling mobs for the people who are actually doing this rather than the the people who will do it if a billion-to-one psephological chance comes to pass? How about taking a little bit of the anger reserved for fools like Nadine Dorries and directing it at the thugs of the UK Border Agency?

You can say a Tory government would be worse than New Labour on immigration and the way it treats refugees but the way New Labour has treated refugees over the last 13 years is one of its deeper shames amongst many. It cracks wide open the big shitty lie of Gordon Brown’s claim of having a ‘moral compass’.

Like I said, where’s the outrage? All I can hear is a Daily Mail silence. A Tory silence.

(More information at the National Coalition of Anti-Deportation Campaigns where you can sign up for email alerts and help campaigns.)

Five to one.

Feb. 9th, 2010 09:29 pm
[syndicated profile] never_trust_a_hippy_feed
Saw this, buried in a slightly awkward and clumsy interview with Joseph Stiglitz:
"....there are five lobbyists for every Congressman in Washington DC, and that there are 77 members of the House of Representatives on the House Financial Services Committee, its popularity mostly being accounted for by the fact that it guarantees a healthy flow of campaign contributions."
short, fat, black dyke in bunny slippers
[personal profile] zvi
Have gmail, have blog by another name.

I do not know what to make of this.

A statement by Gita Sahgal

Feb. 9th, 2010 09:12 pm
[syndicated profile] pickled_politics_feed

Posted by Rumbold

Gita Sahgal, a senior figure in Amnesty International, was suspended by that organisation following comments made by her to the Sunday Times. This concerned Amnesty’s continued support for Mozzam Begg and his Cage Prisoners’ group, a controversial organisation which Ms. Sahgal felt should be treated with caution. Here’s what she had to say on the matter:

I have always opposed the illegal detention and torture of Muslim men at Guantanamo Bay and during the so-called War on Terror. I have been horrified and appalled by the treatment of people like Moazzam Begg and I have personally told him so. I have vocally opposed attempts by governments to justify ‘torture lite’.

The issue is not about Moazzam Begg’s freedom of opinion, nor about his right to propound his views: he already exercises these rights fully as he should. The issue is a fundamental one about the importance of the human rights movement maintaining an objective distance from groups and ideas that are committed to systematic discrimination and fundamentally undermine the universality of human rights. I have raised this issue because of my firm belief in human rights for all.

I sent two memos to my management asking a series of questions about what considerations were given to the nature of the relationship with Moazzam Begg and his organisation, Cageprisoners. I have received no answer to my questions. There has been a history of warnings within Amnesty that it is inadvisable to partner with Begg. Amnesty has created the impression that Begg is not only a victim of human rights violations but a defender of human rights. Many of my highly respected colleagues, each well-regarded in their area of expertise has said so. Each has been set aside.

Curious?

Feb. 9th, 2010 08:25 pm
[syndicated profile] dib_lemming_feed
Live for the next half hour, and around periodically after that. Ask me anything you like, no topic off limits but no guarantees you'll get an answer either if you get too out of hand! http://formspring.me/stephm0g
[syndicated profile] scalziwhatever_feed

Posted by John Scalzi


Icy stalactaciousness fail, on my very own roof. That’s all I’m going to say about that.

Towards A World of Smaller Books

Feb. 9th, 2010 08:58 pm
[syndicated profile] crooked_timber_feed

Posted by Henry

Ezra Klein

It is true that for the best books, there is no substitute for a book. I do not want to read Robert Caro’s blog posts if they will delay his final volume on Lyndon Johnson by so much as an hour. But for many books, a few blog posts, or an article, would work just fine, and the reader would save a lot of time in the process. And time has value.

I think you can push this argument further. I would estimate that about 80% of the non-academic non-fiction books that I do not find a complete waste of time (i.e. good books in politics, economics etc – I can’t speak to genres that I don’t know) are at least twice as long as they should be. They make an interesting point, and then they make it again, and again, padding it out with some quasi-relevant examples, and tacking on a conclusion about What It All Means which the author clearly doesn’t believe herself. The length of the average book reflects the economics of the print trade and educated guesses as to what book-buyers will actually pay for, much more than it does the actual intellectual content of the book itself. Length may also, of course, reflect some practical judgments concerning the book as a display object (I seem to remember Tyler Cowen somewhere suggesting that only a relatively small percentage of books bought are actually read ). Books which are, for example, extended versions of articles written for The Atlantic, The Public Interest or what have you are especially likely to be over-long for their topic – I don’t remember ever reading one of these books and feeling that I got substantial insights which were unavailable in the original article (in some cases it might have been useful to have a better sourced and slightly better fleshed out version of the original piece available somewhere, perhaps half the length again of the original piece, but there doesn’t appear to be a market for that).

All this may be changing as we move towards an electronic book publishing system. The economics of electronic text production are not the same as the economics of book production (as best as I understand either), and there aren’t the same pressures towards standardization of length. I suspect that people who would feel cheated if they paid ‘book’ price for a long essay (say around 20,000 words or so) will feel less so if they buy an electronic version. Ideally, we will end up in a world where people won’t feel obliged to pad out what are really essays to book length in order to get published and compensated. If I’m right, we will see a lot more essay-length publications than we used to. I suspect too that the effects will be non-symmetrical – that is that we will see an explosion in the number of very short books/essays, which will be somewhat cheaper than traditional books, but not very cheap, a moderate decrease in the number of ‘standard’ (say, 60,000-90,000 word length) books, and stability or decrease in the number of long books (books with 100,000+ words). Long books still cost a lot of money to edit. I also suspect that we will see traditional printed books become (a) more expensive, and (b) more beautiful – their main value will be as display items rather than use items. Of course, I have no direct experience of the publishing industry (except as author) and know that several of our commenters know more, and have strong opinions, so look forward to being corrected on any or all of the above …

[syndicated profile] roughtype_nick_carr_feed

Some followup on my earlier post:

In today's New York Times, Jenna Wortham reports:

It used to be that a basic $25-a-month phone bill was your main telecommunications expense. But by 2004, the average American spent $770.95 annually on services like cable television, Internet connectivity and video games, according to data from the Census Bureau. By 2008, that number rose to $903, outstripping inflation. By the end of this year, it is expected to have grown to $997.07. Add another $1,000 or more for cellphone service and the average family is spending as much on entertainment over devices as they are on dining out or buying gasoline. And those government figures do not take into account movies, music and television shows bought through iTunes, or the data plans that are increasingly mandatory for more sophisticated smartphones.

Over at The Atlantic, Derek Thompson writes:

Even if we feel like we're consuming the New York Times and Taylor Swift's new album for free over the Internet, we're paying thousands of dollars a year to access all that "free" content ... We tell ourselves that we're paying for connectivity, but obviously we're paying to be connected to information. So how are media publishers failing if we're paying more than ever for our media? The key seems to be that consumers have learned to put a price on access, but not on individual content ... Today's media mindset is "A thousand dollars for access, and not one cent for content."

As an example of the prevailing trend, the US Department of Labor reports that over the past decade (through 2008) the amount an average American spends annually on newspapers and magazines has dropped by about 40%, from $97 to $61, but the amount spent for Internet access has more than quadrupled, from $49 to $222:

infospend.jpg

The average American's annual telephone bill, including both landline and cellular, rose from $914 in 2001 to $1,127 in 2008, an increase of nearly 25%, according to the Labor Dept.

As for spending on cable television, the Census Bureau reports that the average American's annual bill has gone from $256 in 2004 to a projected $401 this year, a jump of 57%.

How about radio, the original free broadcast medium? The Census Bureau reports that per capita expenditures on radio programming have increased about tenfold from $1.19 in 2004 to an estimated $12.25 this year.

I'm telling you, that free information really adds up.

Addams
[personal profile] miss_s_b
Am on the express train from Kings X to Leeds, composing this entry on my phone - so formatting might be a little dicky - having had a lovely couple of days away and feeling much refreshed. I had fun at the British Museum & took Duracell Bunny on a tour of some of the dodgier pubs in London, which was great. We ended up playing doubles pool with a couple of French lesbians in Candybar, which was a proper laugh. And then this evening we had something to eat in the Betjeman Arms at St Pancras, which is fast becoming one of my favourite pubs.

I am now looking forward to getting home to my [personal profile] matgb and my Holly and my doggies. I've had a great time, but I've missed them lots.

Anyhew, the point of this post is twofold:
  1. To let you all know that I'm not dead.
  2. to mention that because of stupid rail pricing structures, the cheapest ticket option to get home was to buy a return, so I have an open ticket to London to be used before the 8th of March. I thought I'd use it as an opportunity to see all (or at least some) of the Londonny folks I keep missing. So watch this space for planny things.

This blog is sponsored by [personal profile] nanila and I'll be putting the proper code in for this bit when I'm not composing it on my phone. Probably.

How can schools use research?

Feb. 9th, 2010 08:13 pm
[syndicated profile] crooked_timber_feed

Posted by Harry

Madison School Board member Lucy Mathiak, with a lament that, presumably, all thinking school board officials in the US share:

For years, MMSD staff have advocated for their proposals and programming choices by arguing that they are research-based data driven best practices. At times, I have wondered whether the research selected has undergone critical review. That is, do the people selecting the research stop to ask whether the research is methodologically sound with verifiable results, much less whether it was conducted on populations or under conditions that are comparable to the Madison public school district.

I’ve also wondered at an understanding of research that ignores entire bodies of data or work that falls outside of the narrow educational research paradigm. (Prime examples of the latter case include the district’s unwillingness to consider the considerable body of research on how children learn to read that is carried out by cognitive psychologists, linguists, and communicative disorder researchers. But that’s another post.)

What follows is my longwinded response, which builds up to a plea for Districts (or groups of districts) and States to establish local versions of the Consortium on Chicago School Research.

Mathiak’s particular concern is that the only source concerning underrepresented minorities mentioned by name in a report on TAG developments is by Ruby Payne, who is not a researcher, and self-publishes. Whatever the merits of this particular instance of the worry, it is a shared worry for a reason. Educational research (broadly construed as it should be) is voluminous, to say the least, and even much of the best of it is not designed, or written, to be readily accessible to non-academics. Educational leaders, whether at the school or district level, are not trained in the consumption of educational research: in fact, they are not even presented with a great deal of it during their training, even for the purpose of learning what it says. Preparing them would be quite difficult, for a couple of reasons. First, education is beset by a culture of deference to ideological commitments, which makes it quite difficult to have some kinds of discussion in a way that is really sensitive to the evidence. Consider inclusion – the policy of including children with special educational needs in the regular classroom – which is, in some quarters, a matter of faith of such strength that evidence is really irrelevant. It is similarly difficult in some districts and schools to have an evidence-sensitive discussion of racial achievement gaps. When you do have the discussion, furthermore, it is not necessarily the discussion you think you are having! (The most unnerving conversation I had with a superintendent was one in which the superintendent told me that his district uses Ronald Ferguson’s work to design their policies around the racial achievement gap, which I would think was a pretty good idea had he not just told me, as truth, a whole bunch of claims that I had, the previous day, read a Ronald Ferguson essay disproving). Training leaders to conduct such discussions in these circumstances, in which some of them have, themselves, made the particular commitments of faith, is no easy task.

Second, as any reader of CT will know, peer review is no guarantee of quality. The best that peer review does is exclude the very worst and nuttiest research. Knowing the status ranking of peer review outlets helps a bit – my guess is that the average quality of research in very highly regarded journals is somewhat better than the average quality of research in moderately well regarded journals, but I doubt the difference is huge, and if what you are looking for is individual pieces of research you can easily go wrong.

Even without these problems, interpreting research is extremely difficult, and training practitioners to do it presents substantial challenges. What leaders want to know is what steps they should take in their circumstances to achieve the goals that they have set for themselves (or have been set for them). But the research never tells them the answer to that question. Studies using large datasets aggregate over many different schools and districts: knowing that some intervention has, on average, small positive or small negative effects, does not tell you whether it will have positive or negative effects in your circumstances. Studies that are more localized tell us something about what an intervention or change causes in those circumstances, which may or may not resemble one’s own. I spend a fair amount of time in the company of high quality educational researchers, many of whom have a lot of hand-on experience in schools, and they will tell you that they do not know exactly how to interpret their own research let alone that of others for practical purposes.

Let’s take a very specific example. Suppose your school has experienced demographic changes from 5% FRL population to a 35% FRL population, and is now trying to come to terms with the fact that your curriculum and habits of instruction do not serve the new population well. Suppose, further, that the feeder middle school which serves half of the FRL students is a disaster, so that they come in even less well-prepared than they might. Should you move toward a curriculum which quasi-tracks students, providing classes specifically designed for less well prepared students. Or should you direct your teachers to “differentiate within the classroom”: that is, expect students of all different levels of preparedness in the classroom, but to vary instruction depending on the level of the preparation each student has?

Well, the literature consists of a large body of studies, most of which are not experimental in nature. In other words, they compare tracking schools with non-tracking schools, rather than looking at the effects of the kind of change you are considering. Many studies do not look at the presence, or otherwise, of special education students. Reading the literature, it is impossible to conclude that tracking is generally better, or generally worse, for low income students than non-tracking. Even if it were possible, that would not decide what you should do. First, the effects on non-low-income students matter, both intrinsically, and because a healthy school and school district needs to retain the support of their parents. Second, even if differentiation generally benefitted low income students that would not mean t hat you should do it. Maybe tracking generally harms low income students because the lower tracks are assigned lower quality and less experienced teachers, but you have the dynamism and ability as a leader to assign stronger and more experienced teachers to those tracks. Maybe your school has an unusual demographic profile that makes differentiation harder than it generally is to do well. Maybe you lack the leadership skills or the professional development resources to get your teachers to differentiate effectively. These are judgments that even much more unambiguous set of findings than we in fact have would still call forth from the leaders.

None of this is to say that we should not be training our educational leaders better to interpret research – we absolutely should, and I applaud Mathiak for raising the issue in the sharp way that she has done. But it’s a tall order, and meeting it takes considerable institutional resources. I know of two models. The first, which people who had experience of it (I’m much too young) praise was the research department of the now-deceased Inner London Education Authority. I don’t know how it was established, but its mission was to do school based research and communicate with the schools about the results. I can never tell whether its champions are victims of some sort of golden age-ism, but some of the best UK researchers in education worked there at some point, and it was associated with the landmark 15,000 Hours study, which gave some account of what was actually happening while children attended school.

The second model is contemporary, and at last I get to the point of the post. The Consortium on Chicago School Research has been working closely with CPS for 20 years, doing research in and about the schools with a specific focus on improvement, and with a mandate to communicate very closely with the district and the schools about its findings and their policy relevance. This remarkable document explains the way the Consortium works, independent of, but in a close institutional relationship with, CPS (and they’ve just published Organizing Schools for Improvement: Lessons from Chicago which everyone interested school reform will have to read).

Two things to note about the Consortium. First, it requires researchers who are high quality researchers but who are also willing to develop and exercise the very different skill-set of communicating that research in ways that enable policymakers and practitioners to make use of it. The incentives in academia are not to do the latter; it is more prestigious to be presenting at big academic conferences than to small groups of teachers and principals, and career success is easier if you make the geographical moves that make it especially difficult to develop the local knowledge and become well enough trusted in local networks that enables one to communicate effectively. Second, it maintains complete independence from the district, which enables it to be critical, but also, oddly, helps it to maintain the trust of principals and teachers who, if it were too close to the district, might regard it with the suspicion that naturally attaches to district initiatives and proclamations. The ILEA research department was embedded in ILEA, but my guess is that that worked only because education was, at the time, a less political issue than it is now, and because until the 1990s most English LEAs had much closer and more trusting relationships with their schools than most do now, and than most large-ish American districts do.

So, the plea. Get your school board members to look at what the Consortium does, and how it does it, and whether it represents a model that your district or, if your district is small, it and neighboring districts, could replicate.

[Not sure whether this counts as disclosure or name-dropping, but since I started writing this post (in early January), the Consortium has announced my friend and colleague Paul Goren as its new director.]

[syndicated profile] lib_dem_voice_feed

Posted by The Voice

Nick Clegg’s metaphors are on fire. At the weekend we filletted some of the great quotes from his Telegraph interview – and yesterday he came up with another … Speaking of Gordon Brown and David Cameron’s joint refusal to sign up to real political reform, Nick commented:

Listening to the two of them anyone would think they were powerless backbenchers rather than the leaders of the two parties in Parliament which have proved to be the real roadblocks to reform. It’s like a couple of cowboy builders coming back to your house to tell you how bad their workmanship is.”

The quote is from part of a speech Nick delivered challenging Messrs Brown and Cameron to sign up to a five-step programme of political reform as a first step to restore public faith in politics:

    1. Support an amendment to the Constitutional Affairs Bill on Tuesday to prevent Parliamentary Privilege being used to protect MPs and peers from criminal charges unrelated to their freedom of speech in Parliament.</p>

    2. Undertake to publish, immediately, the tax status of all their MPs and peers and to withdraw the party whip from any who refuse or who do not pay full British taxes.

    3. Require all their MPs who flipped their homes to pay capital gains tax on the profits immediately.

    4. Implement the recommendations of the Hayden Philips report to cap political donations at a maximum of £50,000 to take big money out of politics.

    5. Support implementation of the Wright reforms in full and request that the Wright Committee brings forward more wide ranging proposals to end the dominance of the party managers in the House of Commons, as a matter of urgency, recognising that the current proposals are limited in scope due to the terms of reference of the report.

Here’s how Nick introduced the programme:

“In the light of the charges brought by the DPP against a number of MPs and peers, Gordon Brown and David Cameron are suddenly falling over themselves to talk about political reform. Nobody should be fooled.

“Gordon Brown has been the obdurate obstacle to almost every attempt at political reform over the past 13 years, while the double-speak of David Cameron – who even now refuses to divulge the tax status of one of his party’s biggest donors – is simply breathtaking.

“If they genuinely want political change, it is in their power to deliver it. So I challenge them to cut out the speeches and the rhetoric and get on with the job. They can do that today by signing up to five basic principles of reform.

“If Gordon Brown and David Cameron can’t even sign up to these most minimal commitments, the public will see their rhetoric for the opportunistic party point scoring that it is.”

[syndicated profile] badastronomy_feed

Posted by Phil Plait

Utah is only one state over, so when I see a website that tells me a fragment of a comet will hit it on March 1 of this year, I sit up and take notice.

Then I see the flashing text. The multiple colors. The GIANT FONT. The URL: satansrapture.com. Well, still. It can’t be all wrong can it? And then I see the title: "BIBLE CODE PREDICTIONS 2010".

Oh. I guess it can be all wrong.

OK, Utah, you can rest easy. I’m guessing March 1 will come and go with no comet impact, fragment or otherwise. The Bible code is a long debunked piece of antiscience garbage, basically just people looking at random patterns until they find one that kinda sorta if you squint your eyes and plug up your ears and yell LALALALALALA looks like it might say something sorta correct.

Maybe.

Anyway, I wouldn’t normally link to such low-level and obvious nonsense, but no matter how silly a doomsday claim is, there will always be people out there who take it seriously. So just in case, here you go: there are no scientific predictions that a comet piece will hit Utah, and the Bible Code is total 100% fictitious nonsense.

Unless… hmmm. The Earth is hit by about 100 tons of cosmic debris every night. A lot of that is from comets, small (and I mean small) bits of fluff shed off of previous comet passes. And if you live in Utah and go out March 1, you’re sure to see at least one or two shooting stars…

So maybe that website is right!

Or not. I’m guessing not.


[syndicated profile] pharyngula_feed

People keep asking me for books on evolution for their kids, and I have to keep telling them that there is a major gap in the library. We have lots of great books for adults, but most of the books for the younger set reduce evolution to stamp collecting: catalogs of dinosaurs, for instance. I just got a copy of a book that is one small step in filling that gap, titled Evolution: How We and All Living Things Came to Be(amzn/b&n/abe/pwll) by Daniel Loxton. It's beautifully illustrated, and the organization of the book focuses on concepts (and misconceptions!) of evolution, explaining them in manageable bits of a page or two. The first half covers the basics of evolutionary theory — a little history of Darwin, the evidence for selection and speciation, short summaries of how selection works, that sort of thing. The second half covers common questions, such as how something as complex as an eye could have evolved, or where the transitional fossils are. The book is aimed at 8-13 year olds, and it's kind of cute to see that most creationists could learn something from a book for 8 year olds.

I recommend it highly, but with one tiny reservation. The author couldn't resist the common temptation to toss in something about religion at the end, and he gives the wrong answer: it's the standard pablum, and he claims that "Science as a whole has nothing to say about religion." Of course it can. We can confidently say that nearly all religions are definitely wrong, if for no other reason than that they contradict each other. We also have a multitude of religions that make claims about the world that are contradicted by the evidence. It's only two paragraphs, and I sympathize with the sad fact that speaking the truth on this matter — that science says your religion is false — is likely to get the book excluded from school libraries everywhere, but it would have been better to leave it out than to perpetuate this silly myth.

Don't worry about it, though — take the kids aside and explain to them that that bit of the book is wrong, which is also a good lesson to teach, that you should examine everything critically, even good pro-science books.

Say, did you know that Darwin Day is coming up soon? Maybe you should order a copy fast for the kids in your life!

Read the comments on this post...
[syndicated profile] tim_worstall_feed

Posted by Tim Worstall

Any of my readers involved with AIM? Are perhaps a NOMAD?

We’re in the throes of thinking that the time might be right to take the next step with the metals business. At present it’s tiny, but there have been a number of political and technological* developments meaning that this might be a very good time to raise some cash and build an extraction plant.

The aim (umm, sorry) would be to get in the £8 million to £15 million range (tiny for mining, large for other industries) to build the pilot plant.

Any ideas anyone?

* China limiting rare earths exports, new technology for extracting rare earths and scandium, greater environmental concerns about mining pollution and new uses for scandium in volume.

[syndicated profile] lay_scientist_feed

Posted by Martin

Over the weekend I received a rare honour, a press release directed at me with the full intellectual might of the British Homeopathic Association behind it.

The statement came after I wrote a piece for the Guardian which was published under the title "Homeopathic association misrepresented evidence to MPs". Since they've taken such a personal interest in my work, I feel obliged to respond.

read more

Equality runs in liberals' DNA

Feb. 9th, 2010 05:52 pm
[syndicated profile] demos_feed

A concern with inequality lies deep in Liberal DNA. The foundations of the welfare state were laid out under a liberal government 100 years ago. More than 150 years ago, John Stuart Mill argued for a cap on inheritance so that wealth might be more fairly distributed in society, an argument that jarred with Victorian attitudes of the time. We currently live in one of the most unequal societies in the developed word, and for contemporary Liberal Democrats, this remains a deeply troubling fact.  

Today Demos published Wealth of Opportunity, arguing for a renewed liberal equality agenda, based on evidence of the divisive impact on inequality on society and recent finding of the central role that financial security and access to resource plays in life changes and child development. In this pamphlet we recommend: 1) taxing wealth; 2) focusing on early years support in benefits and services and 3) capitalising low-income families. 

1) Reform of the wealth tax system that is riddled with loopholes and widely perceived as unfair could reap fruitful rewards. We argue that there is more political capital in a gift tax than an inheritance tax – a tax that the public despises and which is easily avoided by the wealthy. We also argue for the introduction of a land value tax and a Tobin tax on international transactions.

2) Benefit and tax credit levels should be increased to take more families with children out of resource poverty. We suggest that extra resource be channeled into services used by children from disadvantage backgrounds and their families in the form of a life premium to boost the capabilities of the most disadvantaged children. SureStart should be reformed to focus more on the programmes with a proved impact on child-well being, capability development and parenting.    

3) Evidence suggests that financial security is a key factor underpinning well-being and capability development in childhood. To capitalise low-income families, we therefore recommend a replacement of the minimum wage with a true living wage; replace the Child Trust fund with lump-sum grants of £500 for low income families; and reform of the child benefit system to low income families to pay a higher rate of benefit for the youngest children.  

The Liberal Democrats face a unique opportunity: concern for economic inequality has never been more or higher on the public agenda than in this post-recession era and following the double-scandal of MPs expenses and bankers bonuses. A radical agenda focused on the recommendations laid out by Demos has the potential to cement the reputation of the Liberal Democrats as the vanguard of the contemporary progressive left.  

 

The state of responsibility

Feb. 9th, 2010 05:47 pm
[syndicated profile] demos_feed

Today Demos launched three pamphlets, aimed at the three main political traditions, urging each of them to tackle inequality in their own distinctive way.  Everyday Equality, aimed conservatives, was difficult to write.  Not because conservatives never care about inequality (sometimes we do) but because we are burdened with an immense amount of political and rhetorical baggage on the issue.  Thatcherite apologies for inequality have sometimes stymied those conservatives who are uncomfortable with massively uneven distribution.  Indeed, when we try to voice our concern the shout often emerges from the left that we are only pretending to be care, that this is simply a masquerade to be performed until the power of office is ours.  That reaction is based in the idea that all conservatives are, at heart, neoliberals with portraits of Milton Friedman above our beds, engaged in a desperate struggle to conceal our true selves from an unsuspecting world – that simply is not the case. 

I am a conservative because I believe in the traditions, institutions and heritage that bind our country together; because I respect the law and favour order; because I believe that while the state is one tool for achieving social justice it is neither the only, nor the best.  None of these beliefs mean that conservatives are necessarily predisposed to admiring or desiring an unequal society – they just mean that we might have a different view of how entrenched inequality should be combated. 

In the pamphlet I argue that because of the state’s existing role as an employer in the public sector it is acceptable for the state to use that sector in the promotion of social good.  The evidence that inequality causes societal harm is strong and getting stronger – in light of that evidence Government should use the power it already has to set an example.  The income gap between a nurse and the Chief Executive of their NHS trust can be as large as 15 to 1, between a Local Authority boss and their employees it can be 11 to 1.  These gaps are not only a reflection of the bizarre premium that our public sector places on the skills of management they are damaging to the morale and the cohesion of these institutions and the communities their employees are drawn from.  The armed forces – an institution that is famed for its emphasis on unity morale – manages to function with a comparable income ratio of 6 to 1, the question is why the NHS and Local Authorities cannot do the same.

The centre-right is not traditionally seen as the home of tub-thumping equality activism.  In part that is because our respect for the autonomy and agency of individuals makes us reluctant to use the state to attempt utopian projects – this reluctance need not apply when dealing with the machinery of the state itself.  By tackling gross inequality in the public sector we can set an example to business (in much the same way that the Living Wage has in London) whilst highlighting the genuine concerns that some conservatives have about the impact of inequality on our society.

 

[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson


PoliticsHome

Is a referendum promise really going to help them?

The above is one of the findings from a PoliticsHome poll on Labour’s plan to legislate for a post general election referendum on the alternative vote system.

Although I’m not totally convinced about the wording of the poll questions I think we can draw something from the findings - voters are highly cynical of such a move thirteen years after it first appeared as a Labour manifesto commitment.

The damning figure, surely, is that only 8% think that Brown is “genuinely convinced” - not good with what appears to be a key government measure only weeks before a general election.

The signs are that tonight’s commons vote will go through but I’m far from convinced that there’ll be any benefit to Brown Central. It just seems so opportunistic it could come out as a negative. It can be portrayed as a last ditch attempt to gerrymander the system.

Maybe I’m doing him an injustice but Brown doesn’t seem to get how things can appear.

It’s said that this might help with a post-election pact with the Lib Dems. Really? Labour reneging on the deal with Paddy Ashdown after the 1997 election is still remembered and in any case the AV is not what the Lib Dems want.

Mike Smithson

Anarchist

British Liberal, infrequent activist, atheistic feminist, occasional social media consultant, house husband and stepdad. Amateur baker. Male.

Known to post items of interest on occasions. More likely to link to interesting stuff. Sometimes bothers to talk about stuff he's done. Much more likely to post recipes for good food than in the past. Planning on getting married, but not expecting it to happen soon. Enjoying life in Yorkshire.

Likes comments. Especially likes links. Loves to know where people came from and what they were looking for. Mostly posts everything publicly. Sometimes doesn't. Hi.

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