matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Livejournal)
Mat Bowles ([personal profile] matgb) wrote2007-08-08 12:01 am

On sinking ships and LJ...

OK, with all the fuss about the latest fandom controversy, many of those not involved in fandom at all (which, let's face it, is a huge chunk of LJ including me) might be wondering why it affects them and why it's more evidence towards the site dying off. Indeed, [livejournal.com profile] publicansdecoy posted a poll yesterday and followed it up today with another point about what he likes about Livejournal as a platform and network. And I don't disagree with him on any of those points.

Livejournal needs money

The problem is of course that Livejournal doesn't existin in a bubble; it's run by a company that seeks to make a profit, and has to be hosted in a fairly large and expensive datacenter. It has to be paid for. And ideally they need to keep making improvements to the site in order that it can stay competetive and keep attracting new users in order to replace the natural wastage of those that drift away.

Money needs users, and they're off

When I started using LJ, it seemed that most of my friends, and a huge chunk of new people I met, were on here. Those that weren't soon followed us here, so there's a big chunk of my friends list that are people I knew at university in Exeter, and people associated with them. That's cool. Except now, when I meet new people, the odds are they're not on LJ, they're on Facebook, or similar. Now, my new LJ friends are people I meet through meet ups organised on LJ. But people I know are joining Facebook all the time, in the way they used to join LJ.

Site usage is dropping, and has been for some time

Indeed, we've known for some time, and I've commented before, that usage has been slowly dying for a long time, and an observable pattern of people adding more and more friends just to have the same level of involvement is fairly standard. The usage numbers are dropping. New signups are dropping. The site was already dying off. That's before the management managed to scare off a big chunk of its revenue base (fandom) by being obfuscatory, duplicitous fools. In order for the site to continue to exist, the owners need to make money.  They're failing in this.  Now?

[livejournal.com profile] liz_marcs: The fat lady sure does sing, [livejournal.com profile] brad is leaving SixApart, and [livejournal.com profile] insomnia suggests that he don't let the door hit your ass on the way out. The site owner is bored and is leaving. To go work for Google it seems. Mark thinks it's because he's seen the writing on the wall, and we've been aware for some time he wasn't happy with the way things are.

Long term, the LJ we know is doomed

The introduction of adverts killed the (already stunted) growth of the site, fandom is now planning to leave in droves, and not just the HP slashficcers, but a huge chunk of those worried they'll be next. For those that aren't counting, a lot of fandom users have multiple, paid, accounts. Or had, anyway, a large number have let them drop.

Livejournal, as we know it, is doomed. Unless 6A can sort themselves out. Will it continue in some form? Undoubtedly. It'll probably get bought by Google, or Yahoo, or Microsoft, when 6A finally go belly up.

And that's why I'm preparing to both jump ship, and make it easy for everyone to follow. There are services that replicate LJ utility, there are ways of keeping up with blogs on many platforms in a manner that's as easy as your friends list. They just require a bit of know how. So, when I've got time (and work has hit me with a bit of extra stuff), I'll begin to write up what I'm specifically doing. Because it'll be easier to be prepared.

Because I love this place, I love the way it's networked and let me meet a lot of cool people. And I hate to see it dying. But it is dying, and there's nothing I can do to stop it. So I want to keep you guys even after it's dead.

ETA: Posted a follow up at [livejournal.com profile] no_lj_ads, specifically linking to this post with a very well done set of graphs emphasising the points made above.

[identity profile] pmoodie.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 08:44 am (UTC)(link)
LJ is doomed? Aw crap, I was just starting to feel at home here.

:(

Should I start gathering email addresses from my f-list?

[identity profile] pmoodie.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 09:02 am (UTC)(link)
Ah, well that's not so bad then.

It's maybe a good thing that my f-list is small and perfectly formed. It should make it easier to keep in contact with folks if this place does a Titanic.

[identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 09:03 am (UTC)(link)
* hug *

My worry is definitely what andrew says above. No matter how good the solution is that Mat sets up, there will always be some people who won't be bothered to move, there will be splintering, and it won't be pretty. I'm already seeing this in the fandom-related areas of my f-list... I'm losing stuff I care about because of this already, and moving elsewhere will only accelerate that.

[identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 09:17 am (UTC)(link)
I think you're underestimating the power of inertia. I've been through a cycle of life and death across four websites/platforms so far, if you include LJ, and each time I do pick up new friends (and I'm especially grateful for YOU), but each time I lose more.

[identity profile] the-mendicant.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 07:20 pm (UTC)(link)
Can we change your name to Noah? Sounds like you're building an arc!

I'm such a technophobe, I just don't know if I'll cope with learning a whole new site - I've been here for about 6-7 years.

[identity profile] paulgregory.livejournal.com 2007-08-12 09:46 am (UTC)(link)
These exist.

Friends List = "group lifestream from your friends".

See
http://mashable.com/2007/07/17/social-network-aggregators/

I suspect most of them that cope with LJ use LJ's RSS syndication.

I have my girlf's LJ feed in my Firefox-based RSS reader, and it shows friends-only posts whenever I'm logged into LJ (which is, by cookie, most of the time).

I'm not actually aware of any issues with this other than the lack of comments.

It would be possible for something to log onto LJ and harvest friends posts and comments, but fiddly due to the differing styles people use. And probably against T&Cs.

However, for the bulk of LJ friends' posts, I prefer to read it within the context of LJ. It is how people expect their writings to be read, and everything makes more sense that way.

For what it's worth, personally I will in future be posting anything public to my own ad-supported website and moving LJ to become much more friends-only and much more ephemeral - possibly even deleting stuff after 60 days.

[identity profile] pmoodie.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 09:51 am (UTC)(link)
Yeah, I'm certainly a bit of a stick-in-the mud and I'm not really the type to sign up to several bloggy sites at once. I tend to make my cyber-nest in one place and stay there until it really does go down the pan.

This is the main reason I haven't signed up over at FaceBook really. Hell, I only joined up here because you invited me and it seemed like the only way to keep in touch with you after you left the BHF! :)

[identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 10:04 am (UTC)(link)
I tend to make my cyber-nest in one place and stay there until it really does go down the pan.

Same here, and as I say, I've seen it happen before (the going down the pan) and nobody ever moves en masse to one new solution. Ever.

[identity profile] pmoodie.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 10:46 am (UTC)(link)
nobody ever moves en masse to one new solution. Ever.

No, I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect that.

Oh well, I'll just have to try and keep in touch with my f-list as best I can when the bell tolls for LJ. But as you say, it's inevitable that we'll lose contact with some people. :(

[identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 10:48 am (UTC)(link)
Don't be disheartened, love. If it DOES all move to Facebook, at least I can kick your arse at scrabble ;)

[identity profile] pmoodie.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 11:41 am (UTC)(link)
Fair enough. Keep a seat for me over there! :)

[identity profile] stillcarl.livejournal.com 2007-08-08 11:13 am (UTC)(link)
Microsoft would mostly disagree with that. Once the IBM PC was just one of many choices of personal computers...