Brown Bottles It

[matgb]

So, El Gordo has chickened out and is 'treating people as fools', almost certainly as a result of this News of the World poll. He's attempted to defend the decision but I concur with the Observer, this has sparked a Crisis for Brown as election ruled out. All of this leads me to this YouTube vid by Will/whoukmy friend Mr Pack^[1]:

Scary analysis of it from the perspective of the Tories:

A poll to be published by Sunday's News of the World puts the Tories ahead by 6% in marginal seats, with the party overall at 44% against Labour's 38%.

Translated into a general election, it would mean a hung Parliament with Labour holding 306 seats and the Tories 246.

They'd win 6% more votes, but 60 less seats according to the analysis. Can we have STV now PLZKTHX. Oh wait, that sort of forward thinking is beyond the Stupid Party isn't it.

The real question I guess is has this damaged Brown more for the obvious reasons, or has he hurt the Cameron Project by forcing Davy to tack to the right and go for a core votes strategy?

---

Crossposted on my journal and to ukpolitics here

[1] Message from Mark: Will's work, but I put it all down to the management, so amended accordingly

Comments

[andrewducker]

It's beyond every party. The same thing happened at the last election - the ratios were completely screwed.

You want to give the Scottish system a go - local candidates _and_ PR.

[andrewducker]

Oh, and who cares if Brown has a crisis now? There's no general election in the near future, so he can have all the crises he likes.

Frankly, I don't see what the problem is. He had a choice between A and B, he waited until he had firm figures, and then chose B. Why is this considered anything other than sensible?

[raggedhalo.livejournal.com]

One day, good sir, one day we will have STV.

In the meantime, I'm kinda glad there's no election, albeit for purely selfish reasons; I've got loads to do already this month, and an Election might just have tipped me over the edge. Plus it means I can have Christmas Eve off work ;-)

[burkesworks.livejournal.com]

So, if Gord's now opted for the long game - and do you blame him - do you think we're best sticking with Mince or giving him the cyanide-flavoured Werther's Originals and getting Clegg (or better still, the return of Kennedy) in place by the next general election, given that we're still haemorrhaging at the opinion polls?

Still, one bit of good news - the return of Michael Meadowcroft from the wilderness. A proper left-liberal and a very useful man to have back on board; I'd like to see him chosen in Leeds West against that vapid woman who finished fourth in Bromley and Chislehurst.

[tiredstars.livejournal.com]

I'm happy because I'm off to tour Houses of Parliament with the Insurance Institute of Bristol on Tuesday. Had an election been called, it would immediately have been closed down and the trip would have been cancelled. Brown certainly would have lost my vote for that.

[doccy.livejournal.com]

See, I just think it's hilarious because his is excuse for not having the election is he doesn't want to be judged on competency.

So... He believes he's incompetent?

[getawaywithit.livejournal.com]

I have seen Tories recently complaining about the electoral system and how it affects their chances, but I've suckered in by that one before, only to discover their remedy is something utterly bizarre and anti-democratic. A year or so ago, someone - IIRC, Iain Dale - was proposing that the Boundary Commission should take account of past turnout as well as population when determining electoral boundaries...

And even though the system punches them in the face on a regular basis, they still cling to it because it's their only hope of absolute power, rather than a system where they might have to *gasp* share power, compromise and negotiate.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

"has this damaged Brown"?

Matthew Bannister, or perhaps one of the Beeb's political correspondents (or maybe even Armando Ianucci, who was reviewing the papers for Broadcasting House), pointed that the real mistake Gordy has made is not to piss off the electorate with all this faffing about for the last two weeks, but to greatly piss off all the journalist and editors who have been lapping it up.

Perhaps rightly, Labour's campaign managers were described as feeling that the electorate will have forgotten about this in a couple of weeks; but all those editors won't.

Brown also comes across (to my eyes) as being rather dithering: his reorganisation of Parliamentary business may be in his gift, but to bring everything forward and then do nothing to fill the gap created is just foolish. Oh no, he has got something to put in its place - his agenda for change. Of course.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

(Oops.. I missed a bit out last time, so I've rewritten it...)

I was tempted to say that we've had STV in Scotland for years.

But, of course, we do!

(Nah, it wasn't worth it first time, either...)

[raksaksa.livejournal.com]

Never mind STV being beyond the Stupid Party...I can see it being cocked up horribly the first time we try to implement it!!

"marginal seats"

[mooism.livejournal.com]

I read "marginal seats" as meaning "seats which were marginal in 2005", not "seats the Tories don't hold which they need to win in order to gain a majority". Am I wrong?