Brown's reshuffle--we got it right!

[matgb]

OK then, I've taken a screenshot of the final state of play in our predictions poll and compared it to El Gordo's new team

What we got right

Margaret Beckett: 47.4% said Out! (and good riddance--why were the media surprised?)
Charlie Falconer: 88.9% said Out!
Jack Straw: 78.9% said Change job, he's been promoted to Lord Chancellor (how will he sit on the Wool Sack?
Alan Johnson: He's changed (55.6%) to Health--interesting.
David Miliband: Yup, changed (61.1%) to be the youngest Foreign Secretary for, well, a few decades. I suspect he'll keep the dull blog though.
Patricia Hewitt: Yup, 66.7% said Out!
Peter Hain: Changed (52.6%) to Work and Pensions, although he does keep Wales (wonder what'll annoy peterblack more, keeping Hain or the Plaid/Labour coalition deal?
Alistair Darling:82.4% said change, and he's ended up in Gordon's old job.
Hilary Benn: Yup, changed (68.4%) to DeFRA
Hazel Blears: We were forced to accept she'd not (55.6%) be Out!(38.9%) and is instead now to be Minister for telling the local councils what to do and listening in a patronising manner to all those awful self-appointed "community leaders".  I feel sorry for the councillors, but the other part of her brief may see some fireworks.
Jacqui Smith: Big surprise here; we said change (56.2%)--as Brown's team were expected to all get promotions, but there was no way I'd have expected a jump from most junior Cabinet Minister all the way to Home Secretary.  Yowsers!  One to watch.

What we got wrong

Baroness Amos: 72.2% said Stay--she has in fact been appointed EU ambassador to Africa
Des Browne: We said change job (50.0%), but all that's really happened is he's gained the Scotland brief, which is fairly irrelevant--wonder if he'll ring or call?
Douglas Alexander: We said stay (47.1%) in Transport, but he's taken Benn's old job in IntDev
John Hutton: We said stay in Work and Pensions, he's moved to the renamed DTi/Board of Trade/Ministry for Red Tape
Stephen Timms: We said change job (75.0%), instead in a surprise move he's Out! (0.0%) Weird, thought Brown liked him

What we couldn't decide

Ruth Kelly: She's changed job (47.4%) to Transport, but an equal number of us expected her out (47.4%). Wishful thinking there I suspect, but still, I can't directly see how her insane lunacy directly creates a conflict of interest, unlike her previous two roles.
Tessa Jowell: Um, yeah, we actually got this 100% correct, but only by changing the definitions. She's Out! of the Cabinet (36.8%), has changed job (21.1%) to London and the South East but has also remained (42.1%) Olympics minister. Weird.

So, overall, 11 correct predictions, 5 wrong, 2 undecideds.  Given that this has been described as "Night of the long knives II" by some, and is definitely the biggest reshuffle in my memory, that's not at all bad.

So, tell me LJ brain trust, what do we want to decide next?

---

Which reminds me, mapp? Don't suppose by any chane you could update the icon for me?

Comments

[fearmeforiampink]

We were actually discussing this evening, how Gordon Brown's initials are the same as Great Britain's, you could probably have some fun with that.

Complete change of subject.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

Hey, Mat.

Doomtown question: A dude in Play (let's say The hangin' Judge, QS) has "Who are You Again" played on him, making him an ace.

He does NOT leave play.

Another Hangin' Judge comes up in a pull. Is the *other* Judge a Q, or an A?

Re: Complete change of subject.

[matgb]

Cards not in play being used exclusively for their value are treated as just cards with their printed value; took a bit of hammering out and I think I had to fudge a rules contradiction, but it makes life a lot easier; for pulls and draws, printed value is what counts.

[caramel-betty.livejournal.com]

Perhaps you can run a poll for us to decide what we want to decide next?

Alternatively, just use the old standby:

[ ] Daddy
[ ] Chips

[mooism.livejournal.com]

It contrasts somewhat with Major’s inaugural reshuffle, which essentially consisted of promoting Norman Lamont to take his old job.

[mapp.livejournal.com]

Here's a newer version.

[matgb]

Danke, will load it up later; working from home today and having VPN issues...

[miss-s-b.livejournal.com]

Well, that's OBVIOUS. Daddy, because daddy can MAKE chips.

* smug person with ex-chef for father *

[miss-s-b.livejournal.com]

And poor old Ming the Merciless gets left out in the cold again...

* sniffle *

* hopes Elspeth is comforting him *

...

Eurgh.

Why did I just put that image in my own head?

* goes to hunt for the brain bleach *

[matgb]

Aye; and weirdly Major went across OK; I suspect partially because Major wasn't expecting power, or even to have Maggie go, so did a continuity/business as usual reshuffle, whereas Brown's been planning this for years, has the full support of the party and wants to (needs to?) be seen as different and new.

Time will tell I guess.

[matgb]

Silly SB, I dunno. I had a brainbleach icon once, no idea what happened to it, must be on the old PC.

[matgb]

At some point, y'know, I'll actually do a poll with those options, just to make you stop asking for it.

In the meantime, hmm...

[miss-s-b.livejournal.com]

Ain't you supposed to be working?

:P

[matgb]

See new friends post - am about to start making calls, which means turning Nicholas off. Not actually listening, but I do like that voice of his...

[miss-s-b.livejournal.com]

Not actually listening, but I do like that voice of his...

Ooooh, I like it when you're pervy ;)

[mooism.livejournal.com]

Also, Brown knows what he wants to do with his power.

Brown does not want to be seen as a Labour version of Major. It’s the sort of thing that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I suspect the most effective way to annoy Brown right now is to describe him as being grey.

Alastair Darling would probably take that as a compliment.

[fearmeforiampink]

What about the Guido option?

[davegodfrey.livejournal.com]

While I don't like Anne Widdecombe's politics at all she does redeem herself by:

a) not liking Michael Howard.
b) stating that she would refuse Health secretary because she opposes abortion, and recognises the conflict of interest (something Ruth Kelly is unable to do it seems).
c) Being one of The Master's minions.

[matgb]

Didn't actually remember 2), so yes, that is a good precedent, and shows a bit of principle; I met her once, she's one of those Tories I disagree with on mostly everything but respect because she genuinely believes she's right.

Fruitloop insane, naturally, but you covered that in 3)

[doccy.livejournal.com]

But, see it doesn't specifically say "Daddy that can make you chips". You might, in fact, get lumbered with "Daddy who makes soggy salad and tells you it's healthy and you should eat healthier before tucking into his own chips". DARE YOU TAKE THAT RISK??? *cue dramatic organ music*