[personal profile] matgb

Date: 2008-05-14 01:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] aaronace.livejournal.com
I read some of the Terry Goodkind books, but put them down for good when one of the opening chapters featured a demon chicken of doom... Bawk!

Date: 2008-05-17 10:10 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] rho
Having read the whole series from start to end (I have a crippling character flaw whereby I find it difficult to stop reading something half way through a series, no matter how awful), I can confirm that they only get much, much worse as they progress.

One particular "highlight" was when he spent about 30 to 40 pages on graphic depictions of rape, torture, murder and even cannibalism, just to prove how very, very bad these mean and bad people were. All with completely non-subtle commentary about how they were bad because they were religious communists.

Date: 2008-05-14 02:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dainul.livejournal.com
I loved that reported ufo sighting. "There's a flying object heading towards the airport! It must be aliens!"... obviously.

Date: 2008-05-14 02:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
Looking at various sources and I was reminded of this result - is it possible Labour's headed for a wipeout of these proportions unless they sort themselves out?

I don't really see why; even the most pessimistic - or optimistic, depending on your point of view - projections I've seen based on the local election results don't give Cameron more than a majority of 100. I suspect that both the Tories and Labour have a bedrock of about 120 seats each that they'll have until the end of the world.

I don't, however, rule out an inversion of 1997 and a big Tory landslide. Politics is far less tribal than it was even then, and voters far more inclined to choose whichever party they feel will bring them the most advantage.

Date: 2008-05-14 03:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davegodfrey.livejournal.com
I also do not expect Li-Dem core voters to go over to the Tories as many did in 1997- or as happened with the NDP in Canada.

Date: 2008-05-14 04:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davegodfrey.livejournal.com
How much of that is to do with confusion over the voting system?

What is happening outside of London? Is the same level of tactical voting likely to happen as in 1997?

Date: 2008-05-14 04:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
Already happening :-( I've been looking at the mayoral votes, quite depressing really.

I'm not sure how that would translate nationally - Boris may well have appealed to LD voters as a way to dislodge Ken, but I suspect that the LDs will hold on to more of their constituencies than people think in 2010. They didn't too badly in the last round of local elections, after all.

Date: 2008-05-14 05:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
I suspect they'll be up to 80+ at the next GE minimum, mostly from success in places like Sheffield and Liverpool.

I think the LDs will have to fight hard to make any net gains, but I agree with you - they know how to fight and hold seats, and I don't think Cameron will eat into their number of seats as much as many suggest.

Date: 2008-05-14 05:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
I think you're underestimating one important thing - Labour supporters, even though they may be disappointed, hate the Tories. They'll stay at home for council elections or Euros, but when the spectre of a Tory Government arises, they'll vote Labour, particularly in heartland seats.

I expect turnout to go up in 2010 - mostly through previously disillusioned Tory voters coming back into the light, but also from a smaller number of Labour voters who didn't bother in 2005 turning out to try and stop the Tories. (Just as Ken got more votes this year than in 2004 but was overtaken by Boris.)

I think this wipeout theory is spectacularly unlikely, to be honest.

Date: 2008-05-14 06:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
In Crewe and Nantwich, and also in London, Labour has made the mistake of going negative and attacking "Tory toffs", and that simply doesn't wash anymore. Anyone 10 or less in '97 simply doesn't remember or fear the Tories anymore.


Perhaps, but younger people don't tend to vote in such large numbers. There are plenty of people who hate the Tories and always will. I would be overestimating their number if I was predicting a Labour victory - or even a hung Parliament - but I'm merely saying a wipeout is next to impossible.

I've read a lot of people - mainly in relation to Boris - who think that this Tory Toff stuff doesn't work, and it certainly won't work to win the a general election, but it does have an impact. The reason why Labour supporters hate David Cameron, for example, isn't just that he went to public school - it's his whole demeanour; the sort of public schoolboy he is. That goes double for George Osborne.

I know little (okay, nothing) about attitudes in Yorkshire, but the majority of everyone I have any contact with - from my Mum in Stockport to the majority of my friends in London and Bristol absolutely hate Cameron, and definitely do not view the prospect of a Tory Government with any enthusiasm. I can think of one or two who might vote Tory in the hope of some Tory-LD coalition, and a couple more who might stop home, but the majority will vote Labour or Lib-Dem against Cameron, if only to limit his powers. I suspect that will become more acute with a higher turnout.

You are right that the anti-Tory tactical voting that held up for 1997, 2001 and to a lesser extent 2005 will reduce substantially, but I doubt that it will disappear.

Date: 2008-05-14 06:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
A Cameron landslide with his current unreconstructed backwoods would be worse.

I completely agree with you about this. I think one thing that simply isn't visible to the electorate, but it is all too clear in Westminster, is the amount of loonies who are still present on the Tory Benches, and the fact that many of them are 2005 intake rather than old lags.

Date: 2008-05-14 09:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com
I know LOTS of core Labour voters. They hate the current incarnation of the party and actively want them out. They won't go as far as voting Tory, because that turns their stomachs, but they'll stay home and not vote out of disgust for the current Labour party.

Date: 2008-05-14 10:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strictlytrue.livejournal.com
I know LOTS of core Labour voters. They hate the current incarnation of the party and actively want them out. They won't go as far as voting Tory, because that turns their stomachs, but they'll stay home and not vote out of disgust for the current Labour party.

Well, I can only speak for my own experiences and people I know. I recognise that many of them - including myself - have reservations of various degrees, from disquiet to anger (although few have expressed what I'd call disgust, as such), but I think it's inevitable that in a general election things will narrow a bit compared to the local elections of a couple of weeks ago. I have no doubt at all that some core Labour voters will stay at home, but I'm not convinced at all that there's going to be some sort of national collapse or wipeout - even in the disastrous locals a couple of weeks ago, places like Manchester remained solidly Labour.

I'm not convinced at all that a fourth term would be a good thing for Labour or the country at large - I feel that for a hatful of reasons the Tories would be worse, but a defeat for Labour next time might allow for a proper and total overhaul of approach. Nevertheless, I will still vote Labour a) because we have an excellent local candidate who I'd like to be involved in that and b) I don't want Cameron to have an enormous majority.

I wasn't trying to insinuate that [livejournal.com profile] matgb didn't know Labour voters, BTW - just telling of my own experiences. I may live a bit of a sheltered life, of course, but I don't think it's particularly more sheltered than anyone else's.

Date: 2008-05-15 09:30 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com
I'm not convinced at all that a fourth term would be a good thing for Labour or the country at large - I feel that for a hatful of reasons the Tories would be worse

This is my view also. Sadly, I am finding more and more people difficult to convince of this.

Also, don't underestimate the BNP effect. A lot of the BNP's policies appeal to Old Labour types, who are the ones who are the most disaffected. This is purposeful on the part of the BNP, obviously, but those who are not as anti-racist as I am are very tempted by voting for the Scum.
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)

British Liberal, house husband, school play leader and stepdad. Campaigner, atheistic feminist, amateur baker. Male.

Known to post items of interest on occasions. More likely to link to interesting stuff. Sometimes talks about stuff he's done. Occasionally posts recipes for good food. Planning to get married, at some point. Enjoying life in Yorkshire.

Likes comments. Especially likes links. Loves to know where people came from and what they were looking for. Mostly posts everything publicly. Sometimes doesn't. Hi.

Mat Bowles

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