[personal profile] matgb
I'm awake, honest. I've had enough coffee to get me going again anyway. Doing some tidying up to my LJ, renaming tags, etc. This seems like a good enough reason to rename one of them, plus 2008 has ended so it's time to start a new 'life' tag for this year.

Appears I've posted less about what's been going on in my life this year than any other calender year that I've had the LJ. I guess being happy gives me less to write about, right? Completely skint, but there y'go, can't have everything.

I don't do new years resolutions, and, well, predictions are a bit of a mugs game, but, well, might as well.

General Election this year likely

I suspect there'll be General Election this year. Really. Brown has to call one before June 2010, and when he decided not to call one in 2007, he said he'd go for "a full term", thing is British tradition is that a full term is 4+ years. Last time a Labour Prime Minister took over half way through a Parliament, he decided to go for the maximum possible term of office. His name was Callaghan. That decision proved to be a really big mistake.

Brown's a coward, waiting a risk

Brown is said by many to be a political coward not prone to taking risks. I agree with this assesment for the most part. They say this means he'll wait until the end. I think he has enough of a grounding in Labour history to believe that waiting until the end will be a bigger risk. Hence he won't wait until the end.

He might go in June, but more likely he'll go in the Autumn, after the party conference season. Regardless, it'll be an interesting year with a lot of UK politicking. For those of you that find the whole petty partizan sniping that UK politics frequently becomes a really annoying sideshow, sorry, but, well, the system encourages this crap.

Stop the crap, get involved

Best bet to stop it from happening is to change the system. Fixed term parliaments (like most other civilised countries have) would stop all the silly speculating, and an improved electoral system would encourage some positive campaigning and less negativity (note, 'encourage' and 'less' not 'ensure' and 'none'). Meh, rambling.

Obama rides high, social issues will a problem

Barack Obama gets sworn in as the next US President this month. I predict he'll have a strong honeymoon period riding high in the approval ratings. He'll be able to extend this by releasing lots of analysis of how bad things have been left by the current administration, and be seen to be doing stuff that'll have a long term effect. Many of his most ardent supporters will still become disaffected as he simply cannot be as brilliant and radical as some hope for, especially during his first term.

He'll make some controversial decisions, and likely make a few new appointments to the Supreme Court that'll have a significant effect. Arguments over the social divide within america between the dominionist 'right' and the secularist 'left' will continue, with the legal fight over Proposition 8 and George Takei's marriage being a big flashpoint.

I really, really really really, hope he won't fall into idiotic anti-trade protectionism as many of his supporters want him to.

Ireland votes No, Libertas worth watching

Europe: Ireland'll have another vote on the Lisbon Treaty. I suspect the No vote'll win through again (no evidence, mere gut instinct). The more interesting thing to watch will be how well Libertas does in the European Elections in June. Pro-EU, but anti Lisbon, decentralisers and democrats, but with some lunatic fringe followers. Might make the election a little more interesting and actually fought over Europe, depends on the GE timing as to whether it'll get any media coverage though. Depending on polling data, might be tempted to tactically vote for them, as things stand it's unlikely we'll get another LibDem MEP in Y&H, and I'd rather them than UKIP, Greens or the Bastard Nazis.

Meh, 7pm. Time to go pick the Shrub up from her Dad's.

Date: 2009-01-01 07:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] miss-s-b.livejournal.com
Oooh yes, tab naming...

Date: 2009-01-01 07:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] burkesworks.livejournal.com
Hmmm, I would think long and hard before voting tactically for Ganley's mob, given their links (no matter how tenuous) to the Austrian far-right and former advisers to Nixon and Goldwater. I'd rather have UKIP than some of his shadowy friends.

Personally, as a liberal and a EU-sceptic in that order, I'd like to see a stronger showing from the rump Liberals but sadly I can't imagine them putting anyone on the slate; they're all ends up to maintain a few councillors around the country.

Date: 2009-01-01 07:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] 0ct0pus.livejournal.com
I've been wondering about an August 09 general election as well - my suspicion is Brown suddenly looking like a hero off the back of an 'Obama Bounce' in consumer and market confidence in the early part of the year, and thus chancing his arm.

I actually think he might win as well, Cameron has hardly made a great impression, and if you take away the "arrgh, recession, not Brown" factor (which the apparent "success" of Brownite fiscal policy worldwide could well do) he's not looking like a winner.

Date: 2009-01-01 08:27 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] getawaywithit.livejournal.com
I suspect Libertas will likely emulate the Pro-Euro Conservative Party, if they even make it to the ballot paper. Plus, I'm not sure how fringe the lunatics are when their website states "Libertas stands for individual freedom, democracy, and a culture embracing life" (my emphasis).

Date: 2009-01-01 08:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] stillcarl.livejournal.com
Obama's Achilles heal may prove to be Israel, since it's the first major foreign issue he'll be expected to respond to. It's Biden's "generated international crisis test", me thinks.

Date: 2009-01-01 09:50 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] publicansdecoy.livejournal.com
Presumably under the fixed term Parliament system you would still enable the ruling party to call a vote of no confidence in its Government?

-x-

Date: 2009-01-02 09:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angelil.livejournal.com
< latingeek >

referendum = singular
referenda = plural

Either of these with an s on the end is not acceptable :p

< /latingeek >

Happy new year mate. Hope it's a good one :)

Date: 2009-01-03 11:38 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angelil.livejournal.com
Bahahahaahaha *makes evil face*

Date: 2009-01-03 01:57 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rhythmaning.livejournal.com
Actually, whilst you are completely correct, "referendums" is deemed acceptable by most.

I know, it is horrible, but...
ext_44: (Default)

Date: 2009-01-06 09:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jiggery-pokery.livejournal.com
Rule 460(0) regarding the pluralisation of "referendum" applies (http://alumni.ox.compsoc.net/~nomic/ruleset.html).</tongue-in-cheek>

I don't know you, but I hope you have a good new year too!

Date: 2009-01-03 01:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rhythmaning.livejournal.com
There was a fascinating discussion on Radio4 about the 1978 government papers which were released - a lot about the failure of Callaghan to go to the polls in autumn/winter 1978, thereby getting caught by the "winter of discontent". http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00g4gqb/b00g4ggf/UK_Confidential/

I think people will realise that Brown was part of the economic problems and either way, he is fucked.

Fingers crossed for a hung parliament!!!
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)

British Liberal, house husband, school play leader and stepdad. Campaigner, atheistic feminist, amateur baker. Male.

Known to post items of interest on occasions. More likely to link to interesting stuff. Sometimes talks about stuff he's done. Occasionally posts recipes for good food. Planning to get married, at some point. Enjoying life in Yorkshire.

Likes comments. Especially likes links. Loves to know where people came from and what they were looking for. Mostly posts everything publicly. Sometimes doesn't. Hi.

Mat Bowles

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