Style over substance: the secret of success?

[matgb]

Charlotte Gore is worried that the switch to the Lib Dems in the polls is a style over substance presentation only shift. In the comments, Jennie and Steph both disagree, for different reasons. Her server won't let me comment currently, so you lucky lucky people get the text as a post.

I think Jennie, Steph and Charlotte are all correct.

Most people vote for a variety of reasons, including perception of policies, how they're explained, trust in the leader/team, who's the prettiest (or, in this case, least worst), who they think is competent, what the policies will do for them personally, what it'll do for the country, etc.

the first time in any election I've studied

For the LDs to get a chance at winning, they need air time and most people don't pay a huge amount of attention outside of elections (Rational ignorance is, broadly, a good thing in a Parliamentary system). For the first time in any election I've studied since 1983, the "third" party is getting decent air time, decent scrutiny, and a real chance to make their policy case to voters.

an electoral strategy that could actually work

But unlike in 1983, that's being backed up by an effective on-the-ground campaign in a large number of seats, with an electoral strategy that could actually work, a professionalised team of volunteers and a front man that's actually connecting well with people, especially younger, previously uncommitted/deeply cynical voters. And a weird viral effect online, something I've never seen before, and wouldn't really have been possible before.

It's not presentation. It's not policy, it's not electoral reform, it's not media coverage, it's not a competent team behind an efective leader, it's not a strong ground campaign with experience campaigners, it's most certainly not the #iagreewithnick hashtag.

It's all of those things, combined, at the same time.

And, of course, a basic tendency within a large number of people in this country to actually be liberal. Maybe not the majority, certainly not all Liberal, but Nick's actually quite good at explaining a liberal case in a way that connects, was very impressed with his crime answers in the debate.

Or maybe I'm just being too optimistic. Again.

Comments

[miss_s_b]

you're right. As usual.

[stephmog.livejournal.com]

Aye. Sickening, frankly.

[awesomegore]

Ha, glad the blog was down if it generated something indexable by Google :)

I agree, you know... I don't think it's just beauty. I meant to highlight the absurd notion that someone who knew nothing at all about the Lib Dems could watch the Leaders' Debate and then be said to have made a fully rational choice to then vote Lib Dem.

As you say, it's the dominos.. the odds of the Lib Dems getting all these things right are so long it somewhat explains why this is the first time we've seen anything like this :)

[matgb]

Heh, on Sunday Hilary got quizzed on the details of tax policy by a lady who'd watched the debate.

They were impressed, so went off and looked up policies, wanted to know a bit more about the tax relief on pensions thing as it might affect them negatively, etc.

But they were impressed overall, and decided to vote for us. Without the debate, they'd not have DLd the manifesto and gone through it.

[rho]

I think one of the other interesting things here that differentiates this election from '83 is the deep level of dissatisfaction with both of the two leading parties. The impression that I tend to get is that a lot of people really do not want another term of Labour government but at the same time really do not want a Conservative government either. I think that leaves people much more open to the idea of voting for a third party candidate than they would be otherwise.

[matgb]

Exactly. Plus the other factor I'd forgotten; no Falklands making the incumbent incredibly popular.

[fearmeforiampink]

Aye. It's reached the point where people have turned against Labour to a large degree, but while Conservative have become more slick and savvy under Cameron, they've rather failed to throw off their reputation as the nasty party – people still don't like them.